Influence of climate trends on dynamics yield of grain crops in Minsk and Mogilev regions

Quantitative estimates of the impact of climate trends on the yield dynamics for the Minsk and Mogilev regions for the period 1990–2020 are obtained using statistical data on grain crops and data on average air temperature and precipitation. It is shown that despite the statistically significant actual increase in the yield of winter and spring crops in recent decades, most of them were characterized by a climate-induced decrease in their yield. At the same time, the maximum decrease was noted in early spring crops in Minsk region: spring wheat – 30–39 %, spring barley – 55–62, oats – 48–72 % of the actual increase. In Mogilev region, this decrease was lower: spring wheat – 17–30 %, spring barley – 22–33 %, oats – 35–36 %. Its main reasons were the sensitivity (high regression coefficients) of these crops to the temperatures of the growing season, primarily June, with significant absolute increase in these temperature indicators in the period under consideration. The climate-conditioned increase in yield was revealed only in Minsk region: in winter wheat – up to 10% and winter triticale – 9–32 %. It is due to the high sensitivity of crops to the temperatures in August and September (the sowing period) and high increase in these temperature indicators, which more than compensated for the negative impact in May and June temperatures. In Mogilev region, the influence of the temperatures of the sowing period for winter wheat and winter triticale was statistically insignificant, and for winter rye it was not so significant. The reasons for the differences are explained by the soil and climatic features of the studied regions of Belarus.

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