The impact of climate change on dynamics yield of grain crops in regions of Belarus
Abstract
Based on the regression analysis, quantitative estimates of the influence of climatic factors (average air temperature and precipitation) on the dynamics of the yield of winter (wheat, rye) and early spring (barley, oats) grain crops for the administrative regions of Belarus for the period 1960–2021 were obtained. It is shown that during the period of warming (1989–2021) in all regions, with the exception of Vitebsk and, in part, Mogilev regions, the actual increment in yields decreased significantly. Moreover, this affected winter rye to the maximum, and winter wheat to the minimum. In the course of warming, relatively stable thermal conditions in all regions were replaced by a statistically significant increase in temperatures at key stages of vegetative development, ripening and harvesting of grain crops. As a result, if before the active phase of warming, climate change in all regions of Belarus mainly contributed to an insignificant increase in the yield of grain crops, then under conditions of warming, they everywhere and statistically significantly reduced their levels. The exception here is winter crops in the Brest region. A particularly significant climate-induced decrease in productivity took place in early spring crops and, above all, in the southern regions of the country.
About the Author
V. V. Kalyada
Institute of Nature Management of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus
Belarus
Belarus
Valery V. Kalyada – Researcher
10, F. Skoriny Str., 220076, Minsk
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For citations:
Kalyada V.V. The impact of climate change on dynamics yield of grain crops in regions of Belarus. Nature Management. 2023;(1):17-26. (In Russ.)
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