Mesoscale hydrodynamic climate modelling in Gomel region under reforestation and re-swamping scenarios: comparison with estimations based on remote sensing data

   Numerical experiments based on the mesoscale WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model, atmospheric water balance model and Earth remote sensing data, have been carried out to assess potential climate changes in Gomel Polesie in the warm period of the year (April – September) under the scenarios of re-swamping and reforestation of lands in this region: changes in temperature, precipitation, the fluxes of apparent and latent heat during daytime and nighttime have been calculated. The climatic effect of melioration is achieved mainly due to changes in albedo, evapotranspiration and underlying surface roughness, which together affect the radiation and heat balance of the underlying surface, convective processes in the planetary boundary layer of the atmosphere, cloudiness and precipitation. Numerical experiments show that, as the result of re-swamping there would be a general decrease in air temperature in the region by 0.2–0.3 ºC. The maximum change in latent heat flux was about +0.66 W/m², which means an increase in monthly evaporation by 6.1 mm. Temperature variations throughout the day decreased by 0.8 ºC on average. The increase in evaporation from the underlying surface leads to an increase in the mass fraction of water vapor not only in Gomel Polesie, but also over the whole territory of Belarus. On average for the summer period, the increase of specific humidity of air at 2 m was 4.5 %. The influence of watering of the territory of Gomel Polesie on atmospheric precipitation is ambiguous: the maximum increase in precipitation for the warm season of 2010 was observed for June – July and was about 2.7 % of the norm. The effect of reforestation in numerical experiments was manifested in the decrease of average daily air temperature by 0.3–0.4 ºС (the maximum was observed in the east of Homiel region), the amplitude decrease of daily temperature cycle by 0.9–1.4 ºС and the maximum increase of average monthly evaporation during the growing season by 14 mm.

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