The component-harmonic method of ultra-long-term forecasting of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation
Abstract
Due to the predominant influence of the North Atlantic on the temperature and humidity regime of Belarus, the forecast of the dynamics of such a temperature indicator as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is of significant interest for the development of ultra-long-term forecasting methods (for a year ahead and more). In order to create this forecast, such a well-known ultra-long-term forecasting method was used as the component-harmonic method was used. Several variants of additive models of adaptive nature were formalized based on a linear trend and harmonic components simulating quasi-harmonic oscillations.
The models were built using moving time windows with a forecast for the year following the learning sample (moving window). Various variants of moving windows were considered, selected based on the revealed durations of the quasi-six-decade and quasi-nine-year harmonics. It is determined that the second most important after the quasi-sixty-year oscillation in the formation of AMO values is the quasi-nine-year harmonic. The correlation coefficient of the best models with the observed data is ρ = 0,6–0,7. The disadvantages of the models include underestimating of the values of the standard deviation.
About the Authors
V. F. Loginov
Institute of Nature Management of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus
Belarus
Belarus
Vladimir F. Loginov – Academician, D. Sc. (Geography), Professor, Chief Researcher
10, F. Skoriny Str., 220076, Minsk
V. S. Mikutskiy
Institute of Nature Management of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus
Belarus
Belarus
Vladimir S. Mikutsky – Ph. D. (Physical and Mathematical), Leading Researcher
10, F. Skoriny Str., 220076, Minsk
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Review
For citations:
Loginov V.F., Mikutskiy V.S. The component-harmonic method of ultra-long-term forecasting of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Nature Management. 2024;(2):5-13. (In Russ.)
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